Polish Senior Care perspectives. Some figures and conclusions.

Poland is the most attractive country in aged-care landscape of Eastern Europe.

Simply it's the biggest.

It should attract the investors and it actually does. One of the first Polish LTC chains has been acquired in January 2015 by the second- biggest French operator “ORPEA” (http://www.cerclefinance.com/default.asp?pub=valactu&localcode=&isin=&art=436972)

At the end of 2013 there were 89000 Long Term Care beds in the Poland. (We use LTC data of OECD http://stats.oecd.org//Index.aspx?QueryId=30140, which we assume includes the Assisted Living Units.) We estimate the additional demand to be 199 200 beds between now and 2030. The estimate is based on the expected increase in the number of people over the age of 65 --- by 896 000 through 2030 --- and the expectation of reaching the current average OECD level of 44 LTC beds for 1000 persons over 65. This conservative estimate means that the demand will grow at the rate of 5000 beds per year. (We do not take into account the changing family models of care for the elderly in Eastern Europe or increase of the income of households — the factors which significantly stimulate the penetration of the European Senior Care model to society). So from 2016 till 2019 we can estimate the growth of necessary q-ty of Senior Beds in region as 20000 beds approximately.

Definitely Poland doesn’t age in even way.

On the presented picture the elevation of Voevodships represents the Changes of the size of population aged 65 years and more from now to 2035

So for potential investor in LTC area of Poland we strongly advice to start with six capital areas the fastest aging voevodships: Mazowieckie, Pomorskie, Wielkopolskie, Dolnoslaskie, Slaskie, and Malopolskie.