The geographical scope of the whole project includes 10 countries: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Rep, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Serbia, and Bulgaria — henceforth Countries of Interest, or “CoI”. 10 000 beds should be unequally distributed among them. One half or 5000 beds should be developed in Poland, which represents 35% of total population of CoI, almost 40% of GDP of CoI and has the fastest rate of increase of population over 65 years old. The facilities (each from 80 to 100 beds) with these beds should be constructed between 2016 and 2020.
Currently in these 10 countries there are approximately 350 000 Long Term Care beds. (We use LTC data, because Senior Care data are not available in all the COI.) This is half of what exists in France only. We estimate the additional demand to be 250 000 beds between now and 2030. The estimate is based on the expected increase in the number of people over the age of 65 --- by 5.7M through 2030 --- and the expectation of reaching the current average OECD level of 44 LTC beds for 1000 persons over 65. This conservative estimate means that the demand will grow at the rate of 17 000 beds per year. (We do not take into account the changing family models of care for the elderly in Eastern Europe or increase of the income of households — the factors which significantly stimulate the penetration of the European Senior Care model to society). So from 2016 till 2020 we can estimate the growth of necessary q-ty of Senior Beds in region as 85 000 beds approximately. We intend to develop 10 000 beds, or 11% of this conservative estimation.